Week 6 Matchup Board

2025 season · neutral stats · no pick guidance
15 games market context only Every game. Both sides. No noise.
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Fantasy

Usage + Matchup Context

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Neutral fantasy context: role, opportunity, matchup, and usage-based expectation.

Plus Contexts

Friendliest team-position setups this week.
TeamOppPosGradeDvPRecentTotalImpl
GBCINRB81 Plus30.932.344.529.3
WASCHIRB79 Plus30.833.149.527.5
CARDALWR76 Plus44.952.347.522.3
LABALRB75 Plus30.632.743.525.3
PHINYGWR74 Plus41.241.940.523.8
LABALWR73 Plus42.940.943.525.3

Difficult Contexts

Toughest team-position setups this week.
TeamOppPosGradeDvPRecentTotalImpl
PITCLERB30 Difficult11.814.837.521.5
DALCARWR31 Difficult21.420.047.525.3
BALLARB32 Difficult14.715.643.518.3
CLEPITRB32 Difficult18.015.637.516.0
NYGPHITE33 Difficult7.88.040.516.8
ATLBUFTE33 Difficult5.76.749.523.0

Usage Risers

Recent role and snap movement.
PlayerTeamOppPosAvailMatchupSnapTrendRec tgt/gWOPR
X.WorthyKCDETWRFull62 Plus47%+21%8.50.27
C.SkatteboNYGPHIRBDC150 Neutral53%+10%5.00.20
A.SmithNYJDENWRDC436 Difficult47%+10%1.70.07
C.MooreWASCHIWR-61 Plus53%+9%2.00.14
J.WarrenPITCLERBFull30 Difficult61%+8%5.00.15
B.BowersLVTENTEOut45 Neutral72%+7%6.70.36
J.TolbertDALCARWR-31 Difficult71%+7%4.50.25
J.TongesSFTBTEDC252 Neutral66%+7%6.00.27

Target + Air-Yards Leaders

Pass-game opportunity, not just box-score points.
PlayerTeamOppPosAvailTargetsTgt shareAir shareAir ydsWOPR
J.Smith-NjigbaSEAJAXWRDC14333%50%5520.84
G.WilsonNYJDENWRDC14932%46%4470.81
P.NacuaLABALWRDNP6235%39%5900.79
J.JeffersonMIN-WRDC14229%46%5180.76
C.OlaveNONEWRDC15431%34%4280.71
J.ChaseCINGBWRQ4529%37%4350.70
R.OdunzeCHIWASWRDC13627%40%4300.69
T.McMillanCARDALWRDC14325%42%4900.68

Scoring Opportunity

Red-zone and end-zone usage.
PlayerTeamOppPosAvailMatchupRZ oppRZ shareEZ tgtxPPR
C.McCaffreySFTBRBFull41 Difficult3055%3178.3
J.GibbsDETKCRBDC152 Neutral3042%0114.1
J.TaylorINDARIRBDC152 Neutral2943%0120.9
J.JacobsGBCINRBDC181 Plus2246%097.0
J.CookBUFATLRB-39 Difficult2233%0103.5
K.WilliamsLABALRBDC175 Plus2038%0106.7
C.SkatteboNYGPHIRBDC150 Neutral1937%095.2
A.JeantyLVTENRBDC172 Plus1845%095.3

Running Above Usage

Actual PPR ahead of usage-based expectation.
PlayerTeamOppPosAvailMatchupPPRxPPR+/-Touches
P.NacuaLABALWRDNP73 Plus134.0109.1+24.965
A.St. BrownDETKCWRFull44 Neutral112.488.2+24.243
J.Smith-NjigbaSEAJAXWRDC162 Plus100.578.5+22.046
E.EgbukaTBSFWRDC247 Neutral100.479.9+20.541
J.Croskey-MerrittWASCHIRBDC179 Plus62.745.5+17.250
D.HopkinsBALLAWR-47 Neutral34.817.8+17.09

Running Below Usage

Usage looks better than the fantasy points so far.
PlayerTeamOppPosAvailMatchupPPRxPPR+/-Touches
C.McCaffreySFTBRBFull41 Difficult121.9178.3-56.4143
C.OlaveNONEWRDC147 Neutral63.4103.5-40.154
C.BrownCIN-HBDC1-49.585.0-35.587
A.KamaraNONERBQ40 Difficult59.092.3-33.394
D.AdamsLABALWRDC273 Plus75.7108.0-32.346
B.ThomasJAXSEAWR-35 Difficult48.076.6-28.640
Model corner

Current Slate

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Prediction side track. This is one model input, not the answer.

RankGameEdgeModel side
1 LAC at MIA +7.3 LAC -3.5
2 DEN at NYJ +6.9 DEN -7.5
3 NE at NO -6.2 NO +3.5
4 ARI at IND +5.2 ARI +8.5
5 BUF at ATL -5.0 ATL +3.5