BUF 4-1 · Bills · raw #4 -> down 14 ADJ #18raw #4
ATL 2-2 · Falcons · raw #14 -> down 3 ADJ #17raw #14
MON 7:15 PM BUF at ATL spread -3.5 - O/U 49.5 BUF rest 8d ATL rest 15d non-division market context only
The basics
| BUF | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Points per game | 30.6 | 19.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.6 | 21.5 |
| Against the spread | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Over / under | 3-2 | 1-3 |
Last 5 - newest first
BUFlast 5
W5 - vs NE L 20-23 -7.5 X
W4 - vs NO W 31-19 -15.5 X
W3 - vs MIA W 31-21 -12.5 X
W2 - at NYJ W 30-10 -6.0 C
W1 - vs BAL W 41-40 +1.5 C
ATLlast 5
W4 - vs WAS W 34-27 -2.5 C
W3 - at CAR L 0-30 -5.5 X
W2 - at MIN W 22-6 +3.5 C
W1 - vs TB L 20-23 +1.5 X
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play -0.010 #18/32 -0.009 #17/32
Adj offense EPA +0.044 #13/32 -0.026 #21/32
Adj defense EPA -0.054 #23/32 +0.017 #13/32
Pass EPA/play +0.242 #6/32 +0.042 #18/32
Rush EPA/play +0.112 #3/32 +0.006 #15/32
View full stats
Drivers
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 48.9% #5/32 | 9.5% #7/32 | 11.4% #30/32 | +23.1% #1/32 | 19.9% #6/32 |
| ATL | 43.8% #17/32 | 8.6% #12/32 | 5.7% #3/32 | +12.8% #5/32 | 26.0% #16/32 |
Honesty stats
Recent form
BUF+0.233 #5/32
ATL+0.018 #12/32
Turnover margin / game
BUF+0.20 #13/32
ATL-0.75 #26/32
Fumble recovery share
BUF42.9% #23/32
ATL46.2% #20/32
Red-zone TD / play
BUF21.1% #16/32
ATL16.7% #26/32
Red-zone EPA / play
BUF+0.120 #15/32
ATL-0.116 #28/32
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-07-11T12:41 BUF9 rows
Out T.J. SandersDT Knee
Out Matt MilanoLB Pectoral
Out Damar HamlinS Pectoral
Questionable Dalton KincaidTE Oblique
Questionable Curtis SamuelWR Neck, Ribs
Full Participation in Practice Ed OliverDT Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Dorian WilliamsLB Knee
Full Participation in Practice Taylor RappS Nose
Full Participation in Practice Dion DawkinsT Thumb
ATL14 rows
Out Clark Phillips IIICB Triceps, Illness
Out Ta'Quon GrahamDE Calf
Out LaCale LondonDT Triceps
Out Darnell MooneyWR Hamstring
Questionable Billy Bowman Jr.CB Knee, Hamstring
Questionable Natrone BrooksCB Concussion, Shoulder
Full Participation in Practice A.J. TerrellCB Hamstring
Did Not Participate In Practice David OnyemataDT Not injury related - resting player
Limited Participation in Practice Kaden EllissLB Not injury related - resting player
Did Not Participate In Practice Leonard FloydLB Not injury related - resting player
Full Participation in Practice Nate CarterRB Hamstring
Full Participation in Practice Xavier WattsS Ankle
Limited Participation in Practice Jake MatthewsT Not injury related - resting player
Full Participation in Practice KhaDarel HodgeWR Groin
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
1.5 vs BUF
Market margin
BUF by 3.5
Edge
-5.0
Model side
ATL +3.5
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->