Prediction side track
NFL Edge Model Profile
Public record · not the neutral matchup product
<- Back to matchup board Model setup
Ratings inputAdj EPA/play through W4
Margin scale35.0 pts / adj EPA
Home field1.5 points
Training window2022-2024 regular season
Season to date
2026 Running Record
Through Week 4
- Scope
- The slice of model decisions included in the row.Why it matters: It distinguishes the full slate from narrower confidence subsets.
- Picks
- The number of completed model decisions in the sample.Why it matters: It reveals how much evidence sits behind the displayed rates.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- ATS %
- Against-the-spread wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are excluded.Why it matters: It measures the model's historical spread record while keeping sample size visible.
- SU %
- Share of model-selected teams that won the game straight up.Why it matters: It gives outcome context separate from covering the spread.
- Model MAE
- Mean absolute error between the model's predicted margin and the final margin.Why it matters: Lower values mean the model's score margins were closer to actual results.
- Market MAE
- Mean absolute error between the market-implied margin and the final margin.Why it matters: It is the comparison baseline for judging the model's margin accuracy.
Pushes are tracked separately and excluded from ATS win rate.
| Scope | Picks | ATS | ATS % | SU % | Model MAE | Market MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
Season confidence tiers
- Abs edge / Tier
- The absolute point difference between the model margin and market margin, grouped into bands when shown as a tier.Why it matters: It measures disagreement magnitude without implying that either side is correct.
- Picks
- The number of completed model decisions in the sample.Why it matters: It reveals how much evidence sits behind the displayed rates.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- ATS %
- Against-the-spread wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are excluded.Why it matters: It measures the model's historical spread record while keeping sample size visible.
- Avg edge
- Average absolute model-versus-market margin difference within the row's tier.Why it matters: It describes the typical disagreement represented by that calibration bucket.
Results grouped by absolute model edge. These describe calibration; they are not pick guidance.
| Abs edge | Picks | ATS | ATS % | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 0 | - | - | - |
Current slate
Week 5 Model Slate
Ranked by absolute edge
- Rank
- The row's order when the table is sorted by its primary measure.Why it matters: It makes the strongest or largest values quick to find.
- Game
- The away and home teams in the matchup.Why it matters: It identifies the market and model comparison being scored.
- Edge
- Model away margin minus market away margin, expressed in points.Why it matters: Its magnitude shows how far the model differs from the market, not whether a wager is advisable.
- Market
- The away-team margin implied by the point spread.Why it matters: It provides the public baseline against which the model is compared.
- Model
- The model's predicted away-team scoring margin.Why it matters: Comparing it with the market margin produces the displayed edge.
- Abs edge / Tier
- The absolute point difference between the model margin and market margin, grouped into bands when shown as a tier.Why it matters: It measures disagreement magnitude without implying that either side is correct.
- Model side
- The team and spread corresponding to the model's margin disagreement.Why it matters: It translates the margin difference into the side the model leans toward.
- Result
- Whether the displayed model side won, lost, or pushed against the spread.Why it matters: It closes the loop on completed weekly model decisions.
| Rank | Game | Edge | Market | Model | Tier | Model side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | No games found | - | - | - | - | - |
Frozen training window
Backtest Profile (2022-2024)
- Scope
- The slice of model decisions included in the row.Why it matters: It distinguishes the full slate from narrower confidence subsets.
- Picks
- The number of completed model decisions in the sample.Why it matters: It reveals how much evidence sits behind the displayed rates.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- ATS %
- Against-the-spread wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are excluded.Why it matters: It measures the model's historical spread record while keeping sample size visible.
- SU %
- Share of model-selected teams that won the game straight up.Why it matters: It gives outcome context separate from covering the spread.
- Model MAE
- Mean absolute error between the model's predicted margin and the final margin.Why it matters: Lower values mean the model's score margins were closer to actual results.
- Market MAE
- Mean absolute error between the market-implied margin and the final margin.Why it matters: It is the comparison baseline for judging the model's margin accuracy.
These numbers are the current proof gate for the prediction side track. They do not gate the matchup board.
| Scope | Picks | ATS | ATS % | SU % | Model MAE | Market MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 0 | - | - | - | - | - |
Backtest confidence tiers
- Abs edge / Tier
- The absolute point difference between the model margin and market margin, grouped into bands when shown as a tier.Why it matters: It measures disagreement magnitude without implying that either side is correct.
- Picks
- The number of completed model decisions in the sample.Why it matters: It reveals how much evidence sits behind the displayed rates.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- ATS %
- Against-the-spread wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are excluded.Why it matters: It measures the model's historical spread record while keeping sample size visible.
- Avg edge
- Average absolute model-versus-market margin difference within the row's tier.Why it matters: It describes the typical disagreement represented by that calibration bucket.
| Abs edge | Picks | ATS | ATS % | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | 0 | - | - | - |