Prediction side track
NFL Edge Model Profile
Public record · not the neutral matchup product
<- Back to matchup board Model setup
Ratings inputAdj EPA/play through W5
Margin scale35.0 pts / adj EPA
Home field1.5 points
Training window2022-2024 regular season
Season to date
2025 Running Record
Pushes are tracked separately and excluded from ATS win rate.
| Scope | Picks | ATS | ATS % | SU % | Model MAE | Market MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full slate | 78 | 29-49-0 | 37.2% | 62.3% | 10.56 | 9.35 |
| Top pick/week | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 50.0% | 22.35 | 17.00 |
| Top 10/week | 50 | 19-31-0 | 38.0% | 59.2% | 11.92 | 10.35 |
Season confidence tiers
Results grouped by absolute model edge. These describe calibration; they are not pick guidance.
| Abs edge | Picks | ATS | ATS % | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 30 | 11-19-0 | 36.7% | 0.9 |
| 2-4 | 22 | 8-14-0 | 36.4% | 2.9 |
| 4-6 | 16 | 6-10-0 | 37.5% | 5.0 |
| 6+ | 10 | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 7.8 |
Current slate
Week 6 Model Slate
| Rank | Game | Market | Model | Edge | Tier | Model side | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC at MIA | LAC by 3.5 | LAC by 10.8 | +7.3 | 6+ | LAC -3.5 | Loss |
| 2 | DEN at NYJ | DEN by 7.5 | DEN by 14.4 | +6.9 | 6+ | DEN -7.5 | Loss |
| 3 | NE at NO | NE by 3.5 | 2.7 vs NE | -6.2 | 6+ | NO +3.5 | Loss |
| 4 | ARI at IND | 8.5 vs ARI | 3.3 vs ARI | +5.2 | 4-6 | ARI +8.5 | Win |
| 5 | BUF at ATL | BUF by 3.5 | 1.5 vs BUF | -5.0 | 4-6 | ATL +3.5 | Win |
| 6 | PHI at NYG | PHI by 7.0 | PHI by 11.9 | +4.9 | 4-6 | PHI -7.0 | Loss |
| 7 | DET at KC | 2.5 vs DET | DET by 2.3 | +4.8 | 4-6 | DET +2.5 | Loss |
| 8 | LA at BAL | LA by 7.0 | LA by 2.3 | -4.7 | 4-6 | BAL +7.0 | Loss |
| 9 | DAL at CAR | DAL by 3.0 | DAL by 6.8 | +3.8 | 2-4 | DAL -3.0 | Loss |
| 10 | SF at TB | 3.5 vs SF | 0.4 vs SF | +3.1 | 2-4 | SF +3.5 | Loss |
| 11 | CIN at GB | 14.0 vs CIN | 16.8 vs CIN | -2.8 | 2-4 | GB -14.0 | Loss |
| 12 | TEN at LV | 3.5 vs TEN | 1.9 vs TEN | +1.6 | 0-2 | TEN +3.5 | Loss |
| 13 | SEA at JAX | SEA by 1.5 | SEA by 3.0 | +1.5 | 0-2 | SEA -1.5 | Win |
| 14 | CLE at PIT | 5.5 vs CLE | 4.1 vs CLE | +1.4 | 0-2 | CLE +5.5 | Loss |
| 15 | CHI at WAS | 5.5 vs CHI | 6.2 vs CHI | -0.7 | 0-2 | WAS -5.5 | Loss |
Frozen training window
Backtest Profile (2022-2024)
These numbers are the current proof gate for the prediction side track. They do not gate the matchup board.
| Scope | Picks | ATS | ATS % | SU % | Model MAE | Market MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full slate | 815 | 403-384-28 | 51.2% | 63.6% | 10.36 | 9.42 |
| Top pick/week | 54 | 25-27-2 | 48.1% | 53.7% | 12.81 | 9.69 |
| Top 10/week | 540 | 263-261-16 | 50.2% | 59.9% | 10.83 | 9.41 |
Backtest confidence tiers
| Abs edge | Picks | ATS | ATS % | Avg edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 270 | 142-116-12 | 55.0% | 0.9 |
| 2-4 | 232 | 113-113-6 | 50.0% | 2.9 |
| 4-6 | 135 | 62-69-4 | 47.3% | 4.9 |
| 6+ | 178 | 86-86-6 | 50.0% | 8.4 |