DET 4-1 · Lions · raw #1 -> no move ADJ #1raw #1
KC 2-3 · Chiefs · raw #7 -> down 4 ADJ #11raw #7
SUN 8:20 PM DET at KC spread 2.5 - O/U 51.5 DET rest 7d KC rest 6d non-division market context only
The basics
| DET | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Points per game | 34.8 | 25.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.4 | 21.4 |
| Against the spread | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Over / under | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Last 5 - newest first
DETlast 5
W5 - at CIN W 37-24 -10.5 C
W4 - vs CLE W 34-10 -10.0 C
W3 - at BAL W 38-30 +4.5 C
W2 - vs CHI W 52-21 -6.0 C
W1 - at GB L 13-27 +1.5 X
KClast 5
W5 - at JAX L 28-31 -3.5 X
W4 - vs BAL W 37-20 +2.5 C
W3 - at NYG W 22-9 -6.0 C
W2 - vs PHI L 17-20 +1.5 X
W1 - at LAC L 21-27 -3.0 X
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play +0.203 #1/32 +0.095 #11/32
Adj offense EPA +0.128 #2/32 +0.109 #7/32
Adj defense EPA +0.076 #5/32 -0.014 #15/32
Pass EPA/play +0.330 #1/32 +0.079 #15/32
Rush EPA/play -0.009 #18/32 +0.215 #1/32
View full stats
Drivers
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 52.5% #1/32 | 8.2% #14/32 | 7.5% #16/32 | +1.2% #18/32 | 25.8% #15/32 |
| KC | 50.7% #2/32 | 7.7% #18/32 | 8.1% #22/32 | +6.9% #11/32 | 19.2% #4/32 |
Honesty stats
Recent form
DET+0.006 #15/32
KC+0.023 #11/32
Turnover margin / game
DET+1.20 #4/32
KC+0.80 #8/32
Fumble recovery share
DET40.0% #25/32
KC85.7% #3/32
Red-zone TD / play
DET26.0% #6/32
KC23.2% #13/32
Red-zone EPA / play
DET+0.336 #7/32
KC-0.113 #27/32
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-07-11T12:41 DET11 rows
Out Avonte MaddoxCB Hamstring
Out Terrion ArnoldCB Shoulder
Out Alim McNeillDT Knee
Out Zach CunninghamLB Hamstring
Out Sione VakiRB Groin
Out Giovanni ManuT Knee
Out Taylor DeckerT Shoulder
Questionable Brian BranchS Ankle
Questionable Kerby JosephS Knee
Questionable Kalif RaymondWR Neck
Full Participation in Practice Amon-Ra St. BrownWR Wrist
KC12 rows
Questionable Josh SimmonsT Not injury related - personal matter
Full Participation in Practice Kristian FultonCB Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Charles OmenihuDE Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Omarr Norman-LottDT Shoulder
Full Participation in Practice Jeffrey BassaLB Knee
Full Participation in Practice Nick BoltonLB Calf
Full Participation in Practice Patrick MahomesQB Groin
Full Participation in Practice Kareem HuntRB Calf
Full Participation in Practice Jawaan TaylorT Knee
Full Participation in Practice JuJu Smith-SchusterWR Knee
Full Participation in Practice Marquise BrownWR Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Xavier WorthyWR Shoulder, Ankle
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
DET by 2.3
Market margin
2.5 vs DET
Edge
+4.8
Model side
DET +2.5
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->