NE 3-2 · Patriots · raw #23 -> down 3 ADJ #26raw #23
NO 1-4 · Saints · raw #24 -> up 1 ADJ #23raw #24
SUN 1:00 PM NE at NO spread -3.5 - O/U 46.5 NE rest 7d NO rest 7d non-division market context only
The basics
| NE | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 18.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.2 | 27.0 |
| Against the spread | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Over / under | 2-3 | 3-2 |
Last 5 - newest first
NElast 5
W5 - at BUF W 23-20 +7.5 C
W4 - vs CAR W 42-13 -5.5 C
W3 - vs PIT L 14-21 +1.5 X
W2 - at MIA W 33-27 +1.5 C
W1 - vs LV L 13-20 -2.5 X
NOlast 5
W5 - vs NYG W 26-14 -1.5 C
W4 - at BUF L 19-31 +15.5 C
W3 - at SEA L 13-44 +7.5 X
W2 - vs SF L 21-26 +3.0 X
W1 - vs ARI L 13-20 +6.0 X
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play -0.171 #26/32 -0.138 #23/32
Adj offense EPA -0.047 #22/32 -0.021 #20/32
Adj defense EPA -0.124 #29/32 -0.116 #27/32
Pass EPA/play +0.166 #7/32 -0.085 #24/32
Rush EPA/play -0.108 #27/32 +0.024 #14/32
View full stats
Drivers
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 44.0% #16/32 | 8.4% #13/32 | 8.9% #26/32 | -5.8% #25/32 | 28.2% #21/32 |
| NO | 45.5% #14/32 | 5.4% #27/32 | 6.6% #7/32 | +7.0% #10/32 | 21.8% #9/32 |
Honesty stats
Recent form
NE+0.313 #2/32
NO+0.031 #10/32
Turnover margin / game
NE-0.20 #20/32
NO+1.00 #6/32
Fumble recovery share
NE50.0% #18/32
NO77.8% #4/32
Red-zone TD / play
NE25.5% #9/32
NO14.6% #29/32
Red-zone EPA / play
NE+0.065 #18/32
NO-0.095 #26/32
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-07-11T12:41 NE12 rows
Out Keion WhiteDE Elbow
Out Anfernee JenningsLB Ankle
Out Antonio GibsonRB Knee
Out Jaylinn HawkinsS Hamstring
Questionable Charles WoodsCB Knee
Questionable Christian GonzalezCB Hamstring
Questionable Milton WilliamsDT Illness, Ankle
Questionable Marte MapuLB Neck, Hamstring
Full Participation in Practice Christian BarmoreDT Not injury related - other
Full Participation in Practice Joshua FarmerDT Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Mike OnwenuG Shoulder, Thigh
Full Participation in Practice K'Lavon ChaissonLB Knee
NO10 rows
Out Isaac YiadomCB Hamstring
Out John RidgewayDT Shoulder
Questionable Alvin KamaraRB Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Chase YoungDE Calf
Full Participation in Practice Davon GodchauxDT Not injury related - resting player
Full Participation in Practice Cesar RuizG Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Dillon RadunzG Toe
Full Participation in Practice Trevor PenningG Ankle
Full Participation in Practice Justin ReidS Concussion
Full Participation in Practice Juwan JohnsonTE Ankle
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
2.7 vs NE
Market margin
NE by 3.5
Edge
-6.2
Model side
NO +3.5
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->