SF 4-1 · 49ers · raw #12 -> up 8 ADJ #4raw #12
TB 4-1 · Buccaneers · raw #8 -> down 2 ADJ #10raw #8
SUN 4:25 PM SF at TB spread 3.5 - O/U 46.5 SF rest 10d TB rest 7d non-division market context only
The basics
| SF | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Points per game | 21.2 | 27.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 26.4 |
| Against the spread | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Over / under | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Last 5 - newest first
SFlast 5
W5 - at LA W 26-23 +8.5 C
W4 - vs JAX L 21-26 -3.5 X
W3 - vs ARI W 16-15 -1.5 X
W2 - at NO W 26-21 -3.0 C
W1 - at SEA W 17-13 -2.5 C
TBlast 5
W5 - at SEA W 38-35 +3.5 C
W4 - vs PHI L 25-31 +3.5 X
W3 - vs NYJ W 29-27 -6.5 X
W2 - at HOU W 20-19 +2.5 C
W1 - at ATL W 23-20 -1.5 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play +0.134 #4/32 +0.102 #10/32
Adj offense EPA +0.049 #12/32 +0.126 #4/32
Adj defense EPA +0.085 #3/32 -0.024 #18/32
Pass EPA/play +0.142 #10/32 +0.165 #9/32
Rush EPA/play -0.121 #28/32 -0.008 #17/32
View full stats
Drivers
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 47.8% #8/32 | 6.1% #24/32 | 6.9% #11/32 | -12.3% #28/32 | 13.7% #1/32 |
| TB | 41.7% #24/32 | 9.0% #9/32 | 8.8% #25/32 | +8.1% #8/32 | 23.3% #10/32 |
Honesty stats
Recent form
SF-0.122 #27/32
TB+0.066 #9/32
Turnover margin / game
SF-0.60 #22/32
TB+0.40 #9/32
Fumble recovery share
SF57.1% #12/32
TB62.5% #8/32
Red-zone TD / play
SF13.6% #30/32
TB20.9% #17/32
Red-zone EPA / play
SF+0.038 #20/32
TB+0.036 #21/32
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-07-11T12:41 SF18 rows
Out Yetur Gross-MatosDE Knee, Hamstring
Out Kevin GivensDT Pectoral
Out Brock PurdyQB Toe
Out Jordan WatkinsWR Calf
Out Ricky PearsallWR Knee
Questionable Upton StoutCB Ankle
Questionable Alfred CollinsDT Knee
Questionable Kalia DavisDT Hand
Questionable Mac JonesQB Knee, Oblique
Questionable Malik MustaphaS Knee
Questionable Jauan JenningsWR Ankle, Rib
Full Participation in Practice Mykel WilliamsDE Wrist, Oblique
Did Not Participate In Practice Robert Beal Jr.DE Ankle
Full Participation in Practice CJ WestDT Thumb
Full Participation in Practice Thomas MorsteadP Back
Full Participation in Practice Christian McCaffreyRB Not injury related - resting player
Full Participation in Practice Trent WilliamsT Not injury related - resting player
Full Participation in Practice Kendrick BourneWR Rib
TB11 rows
Out Benjamin MorrisonCB Hamstring
Out Zyon McCollumCB Thumb
Out Bucky IrvingRB Foot, Shoulder
Out Josh WilliamsRB Concussion
Out Chris Godwin Jr.WR Fibula
Out Mike EvansWR Hamstring
Questionable Christian IzienS Quadricep
Full Participation in Practice Jamel DeanCB Hip
Limited Participation in Practice Lavonte DavidLB Knee
Limited Participation in Practice Teddy BridgewaterQB Shoulder
Full Participation in Practice Tristan WirfsT Knee
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
0.4 vs SF
Market margin
3.5 vs SF
Edge
+3.1
Model side
SF +3.5
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->