Week 6 Matchup Board
2025 season · neutral stats · no pick guidance
15 games market context only Every game. Both sides. No noise.
Slate
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
ARI Cardinals adj #12
IND Colts adj #7
spread 8.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
MON 7:15 PM PREVIEW
BUF Bills adj #18
ATL Falcons adj #17
spread -3.5 - O/U 49.5 Full stats ->
MON 8:15 PM PREVIEW
CHI Bears adj #21
WAS Commanders adj #13
spread 5.5 - O/U 49.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:25 PM PREVIEW
CIN Bengals adj #29
GB Packers adj #2
spread 14.0 - O/U 44.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
CLE Browns adj #24
PIT Steelers adj #22
spread 5.5 - O/U 37.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
DAL Cowboys adj #20
CAR Panthers adj #31
spread -3.0 - O/U 47.5 Full stats ->
SUN 9:30 AM PREVIEW
DEN Broncos adj #9
NYJ Jets adj #32
spread -7.5 - O/U 43.5 Full stats ->
SUN 8:20 PM PREVIEW
DET Lions adj #1
KC Chiefs adj #11
spread 2.5 - O/U 51.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
LAC Chargers adj #14
MIA Dolphins adj #30
spread -3.5 - O/U 45.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
LA Rams adj #8
BAL Ravens adj #15
spread -7.0 - O/U 43.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
NE Patriots adj #26
NO Saints adj #23
spread -3.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
THU 8:15 PM PREVIEW
PHI Eagles adj #3
NYG Giants adj #28
spread -7.0 - O/U 40.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM PREVIEW
SEA Seahawks adj #5
JAX Jaguars adj #16
spread -1.5 - O/U 47.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:25 PM PREVIEW
SF 49ers adj #4
TB Buccaneers adj #10
spread 3.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:05 PM PREVIEW
TEN Titans adj #27
LV Raiders adj #25
spread 3.5 - O/U 41.5 Full stats ->
Fantasy
Usage + Matchup Context
Neutral fantasy context: role, opportunity, matchup, and usage-based expectation.
Plus Contexts
Friendliest team-position setups this week.| Team | Opp | Pos | Grade | DvP | Recent | Total | Impl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | CIN | RB | 81 Plus | 30.9 | 32.3 | 44.5 | 29.3 |
| WAS | CHI | RB | 79 Plus | 30.8 | 33.1 | 49.5 | 27.5 |
| CAR | DAL | WR | 76 Plus | 44.9 | 52.3 | 47.5 | 22.3 |
| LA | BAL | RB | 75 Plus | 30.6 | 32.7 | 43.5 | 25.3 |
| PHI | NYG | WR | 74 Plus | 41.2 | 41.9 | 40.5 | 23.8 |
| LA | BAL | WR | 73 Plus | 42.9 | 40.9 | 43.5 | 25.3 |
Difficult Contexts
Toughest team-position setups this week.| Team | Opp | Pos | Grade | DvP | Recent | Total | Impl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | CLE | RB | 30 Difficult | 11.8 | 14.8 | 37.5 | 21.5 |
| DAL | CAR | WR | 31 Difficult | 21.4 | 20.0 | 47.5 | 25.3 |
| BAL | LA | RB | 32 Difficult | 14.7 | 15.6 | 43.5 | 18.3 |
| CLE | PIT | RB | 32 Difficult | 18.0 | 15.6 | 37.5 | 16.0 |
| NYG | PHI | TE | 33 Difficult | 7.8 | 8.0 | 40.5 | 16.8 |
| ATL | BUF | TE | 33 Difficult | 5.7 | 6.7 | 49.5 | 23.0 |
Usage Risers
Recent role and snap movement.| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Avail | Matchup | Snap | Trend | Rec tgt/g | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Worthy | KC | DET | WR | Full | 62 Plus | 47% | +21% | 8.5 | 0.27 |
| C.Skattebo | NYG | PHI | RB | DC1 | 50 Neutral | 53% | +10% | 5.0 | 0.20 |
| A.Smith | NYJ | DEN | WR | DC4 | 36 Difficult | 47% | +10% | 1.7 | 0.07 |
| C.Moore | WAS | CHI | WR | - | 61 Plus | 53% | +9% | 2.0 | 0.14 |
| J.Warren | PIT | CLE | RB | Full | 30 Difficult | 61% | +8% | 5.0 | 0.15 |
| B.Bowers | LV | TEN | TE | Out | 45 Neutral | 72% | +7% | 6.7 | 0.36 |
| J.Tolbert | DAL | CAR | WR | - | 31 Difficult | 71% | +7% | 4.5 | 0.25 |
| J.Tonges | SF | TB | TE | DC2 | 52 Neutral | 66% | +7% | 6.0 | 0.27 |
Target + Air-Yards Leaders
Pass-game opportunity, not just box-score points.| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Avail | Targets | Tgt share | Air share | Air yds | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba | SEA | JAX | WR | DC1 | 43 | 33% | 50% | 552 | 0.84 |
| G.Wilson | NYJ | DEN | WR | DC1 | 49 | 32% | 46% | 447 | 0.81 |
| P.Nacua | LA | BAL | WR | DNP | 62 | 35% | 39% | 590 | 0.79 |
| J.Jefferson | MIN | - | WR | DC1 | 42 | 29% | 46% | 518 | 0.76 |
| C.Olave | NO | NE | WR | DC1 | 54 | 31% | 34% | 428 | 0.71 |
| J.Chase | CIN | GB | WR | Q | 45 | 29% | 37% | 435 | 0.70 |
| R.Odunze | CHI | WAS | WR | DC1 | 36 | 27% | 40% | 430 | 0.69 |
| T.McMillan | CAR | DAL | WR | DC1 | 43 | 25% | 42% | 490 | 0.68 |
Scoring Opportunity
Red-zone and end-zone usage.| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Avail | Matchup | RZ opp | RZ share | EZ tgt | xPPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey | SF | TB | RB | Full | 41 Difficult | 30 | 55% | 3 | 178.3 |
| J.Gibbs | DET | KC | RB | DC1 | 52 Neutral | 30 | 42% | 0 | 114.1 |
| J.Taylor | IND | ARI | RB | DC1 | 52 Neutral | 29 | 43% | 0 | 120.9 |
| J.Jacobs | GB | CIN | RB | DC1 | 81 Plus | 22 | 46% | 0 | 97.0 |
| J.Cook | BUF | ATL | RB | - | 39 Difficult | 22 | 33% | 0 | 103.5 |
| K.Williams | LA | BAL | RB | DC1 | 75 Plus | 20 | 38% | 0 | 106.7 |
| C.Skattebo | NYG | PHI | RB | DC1 | 50 Neutral | 19 | 37% | 0 | 95.2 |
| A.Jeanty | LV | TEN | RB | DC1 | 72 Plus | 18 | 45% | 0 | 95.3 |
Running Above Usage
Actual PPR ahead of usage-based expectation.| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Avail | Matchup | PPR | xPPR | +/- | Touches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Nacua | LA | BAL | WR | DNP | 73 Plus | 134.0 | 109.1 | +24.9 | 65 |
| A.St. Brown | DET | KC | WR | Full | 44 Neutral | 112.4 | 88.2 | +24.2 | 43 |
| J.Smith-Njigba | SEA | JAX | WR | DC1 | 62 Plus | 100.5 | 78.5 | +22.0 | 46 |
| E.Egbuka | TB | SF | WR | DC2 | 47 Neutral | 100.4 | 79.9 | +20.5 | 41 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt | WAS | CHI | RB | DC1 | 79 Plus | 62.7 | 45.5 | +17.2 | 50 |
| D.Hopkins | BAL | LA | WR | - | 47 Neutral | 34.8 | 17.8 | +17.0 | 9 |
Running Below Usage
Usage looks better than the fantasy points so far.| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Avail | Matchup | PPR | xPPR | +/- | Touches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey | SF | TB | RB | Full | 41 Difficult | 121.9 | 178.3 | -56.4 | 143 |
| C.Olave | NO | NE | WR | DC1 | 47 Neutral | 63.4 | 103.5 | -40.1 | 54 |
| C.Brown | CIN | - | HB | DC1 | - | 49.5 | 85.0 | -35.5 | 87 |
| A.Kamara | NO | NE | RB | Q | 40 Difficult | 59.0 | 92.3 | -33.3 | 94 |
| D.Adams | LA | BAL | WR | DC2 | 73 Plus | 75.7 | 108.0 | -32.3 | 46 |
| B.Thomas | JAX | SEA | WR | - | 35 Difficult | 48.0 | 76.6 | -28.6 | 40 |
Model corner
Current Slate
Prediction side track. This is one model input, not the answer.
| Rank | Game | Edge | Model side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC at MIA | +7.3 | LAC -3.5 |
| 2 | DEN at NYJ | +6.9 | DEN -7.5 |
| 3 | NE at NO | -6.2 | NO +3.5 |
| 4 | ARI at IND | +5.2 | ARI +8.5 |
| 5 | BUF at ATL | -5.0 | ATL +3.5 |