Week 6 Matchup Board
2025 season · neutral stats · no pick guidance
15 games market context only Every game. Both sides. No noise.
Slate
SUN 1:00 PM
ARI Cardinals · 2-3 adj #12
IND Colts · 4-1 adj #7
spread 8.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
MON 7:15 PM
BUF Bills · 4-1 adj #18
ATL Falcons · 2-2 adj #17
spread -3.5 - O/U 49.5 Full stats ->
MON 8:15 PM
CHI Bears · 2-2 adj #21
WAS Commanders · 3-2 adj #13
spread 5.5 - O/U 49.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:25 PM
CIN Bengals · 2-3 adj #29
GB Packers · 2-1-1 adj #2
spread 14.0 - O/U 44.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
CLE Browns · 1-4 adj #24
PIT Steelers · 3-1 adj #22
spread 5.5 - O/U 37.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
DAL Cowboys · 2-2-1 adj #20
CAR Panthers · 2-3 adj #31
spread -3.0 - O/U 47.5 Full stats ->
SUN 9:30 AM
DEN Broncos · 3-2 adj #9
NYJ Jets · 0-5 adj #32
spread -7.5 - O/U 43.5 Full stats ->
SUN 8:20 PM
DET Lions · 4-1 adj #1
KC Chiefs · 2-3 adj #11
spread 2.5 - O/U 51.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
LAC Chargers · 3-2 adj #14
MIA Dolphins · 1-4 adj #30
spread -3.5 - O/U 45.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
LA Rams · 3-2 adj #8
BAL Ravens · 1-4 adj #15
spread -7.0 - O/U 43.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
NE Patriots · 3-2 adj #26
NO Saints · 1-4 adj #23
spread -3.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
THU 8:15 PM
PHI Eagles · 4-1 adj #3
NYG Giants · 1-4 adj #28
spread -7.0 - O/U 40.5 Full stats ->
SUN 1:00 PM
SEA Seahawks · 3-2 adj #5
JAX Jaguars · 4-1 adj #16
spread -1.5 - O/U 47.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:25 PM
SF 49ers · 4-1 adj #4
TB Buccaneers · 4-1 adj #10
spread 3.5 - O/U 46.5 Full stats ->
SUN 4:05 PM
TEN Titans · 1-4 adj #27
LV Raiders · 1-4 adj #25
spread 3.5 - O/U 41.5 Full stats ->
Fantasy
Top Usage Profiles
Backward-looking opportunity ranked by usage xPPR per game. Not a forecast.
- Rank
- The row's order when the table is sorted by its primary measure.Why it matters: It makes the strongest or largest values quick to find.
- Player
- The player attached to the usage row.Why it matters: It identifies whose opportunity or production is being measured.
- Usage xPPR/g
- Expected PPR per game from targets, carries, air yards, red-zone opportunities, end-zone targets, and QB attempts.Why it matters: It summarizes backward-looking opportunity without treating recent fantasy points as a forecast.
- Opportunity/g
- Per-game pass attempts for QBs, carries plus targets for RBs, and targets for WRs and TEs.Why it matters: It shows the role volume underlying usage xPPR per game.
- Recent PPR/g
- Actual PPR fantasy points per game over the recent-week window.Why it matters: It adds recent production context beside the longer usage estimate.
- Snap share
- The player's share of team offensive snaps.Why it matters: More playing time creates more chances to earn touches and targets.
| # | Player | Usage xPPR/g | Opp/g |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Christian McCaffrey SF · vs TB · Full | 35.7 | 28.6 |
| #2 | Josh Jacobs GB · vs CIN · DC1 | 24.2 | 23.5 |
| #3 | Jonathan Taylor IND · vs ARI · DC1 | 24.2 | 22.6 |
| #4 | Bijan Robinson ATL · vs BUF · DC1 | 23.0 | 21.8 |
| #5 | Jahmyr Gibbs DET · vs KC · DC1 | 22.8 | 18.6 |
| # | Player | Usage xPPR/g | Tgt/g |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Puka Nacua LA · vs BAL · DNP | 21.8 | 12.4 |
| #2 | Davante Adams LA · vs BAL · DC2 | 21.6 | 9.2 |
| #3 | Chris Olave NO · vs NE · DC1 | 20.9 | 10.8 |
| #4 | CeeDee Lamb DAL · vs CAR · Out | 20.3 | 12.0 |
| #5 | Rome Odunze CHI · vs WAS · DC1 | 19.7 | 9.0 |
| # | Player | Usage xPPR/g | Tgt/g |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Jake Ferguson DAL · vs CAR · DC1 | 17.5 | 9.6 |
| #2 | Trey McBride ARI · vs IND · DC1 | 15.5 | 8.4 |
| #3 | Brock Bowers LV · vs TEN · Out | 13.7 | 7.0 |
| #4 | Juwan Johnson NO · vs NE · Full | 13.4 | 7.0 |
| #5 | Tyler Warren IND · vs ARI · DC1 | 12.8 | 6.4 |
| # | Player | Usage xPPR/g | Att/g |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Josh Allen BUF · vs ATL · DC1 | 27.5 | 32.6 |
| #2 | Patrick Mahomes KC · vs DET · Full | 27.3 | 38.2 |
| #3 | Brock Purdy SF · vs TB · Out | 26.5 | 38.0 |
| #4 | Mac Jones SF · vs TB · Q | 26.3 | 44.7 |
| #5 | Jayden Daniels WAS · vs CHI · Full | 25.9 | 35.7 |
Model corner
Current Slate
- Rank
- The row's order when the table is sorted by its primary measure.Why it matters: It makes the strongest or largest values quick to find.
- Game
- The away and home teams in the matchup.Why it matters: It identifies the market and model comparison being scored.
- Edge
- Model away margin minus market away margin, expressed in points.Why it matters: Its magnitude shows how far the model differs from the market, not whether a wager is advisable.
- Model side
- The team and spread corresponding to the model's margin disagreement.Why it matters: It translates the margin difference into the side the model leans toward.
Prediction side track. This is one model input, not the answer.
| Rank | Game | Edge | Model side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC at MIA | +7.3 | LAC -3.5 |
| 2 | DEN at NYJ | +6.9 | DEN -7.5 |
| 3 | NE at NO | -6.2 | NO +3.5 |
| 4 | ARI at IND | +5.2 | ARI +8.5 |
| 5 | BUF at ATL | -5.0 | ATL +3.5 |