ARCHIVED · FINAL
BUF Record — ADJ #10raw #6 
HOU Record — ADJ #4raw #9 FINAL
BUF 36
HOU 31
Kickoff was Rest · BUF 7d · HOU 7d
BUF -1.5 HOU +1.5 O/U 44.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · BUF 23.0 · HOU 21.5
| BUF | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | - | - |
| Points per game | - | - |
| Points allowed per game | - | - |
| Against the spread | - | - |
| Over / under | - | - |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
No completed 2026 games yet. Last-five results begin after Week 1.
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
2025 baseline- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
BUF+0.043 #10/32
HOU+0.088 #4/32
Adj offense EPA
BUF+0.062 #8/32
HOU-0.014 #19/32
Adj defense EPA
BUF-0.019 #18/32
HOU+0.102 #2/32
EPA/dropback
BUF-
HOU-
EPA/dropback allowed
BUF-
HOU-
Rush EPA/play
BUF-
HOU-
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
Pressure diff and blitz faced: No pfr_advstats_pass data cached or published for season 2026.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | - | - | - | - | - |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
No completed 2026 games yet; recent-form, turnover, and red-zone stats begin after Week 1.
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-13T02:11 BUF3 rows
Questionable T.J. SandersDE Knee
Questionable Ty JohnsonRB Hamstring
Questionable Jordan HancockCB Quadricep
HOU4 rows
DNP Kayden McDonaldDT Ankle
DNP Will Anderson Jr.DE Not injury related - resting player
Full Trent BrownT Wrist
Full Wade WoodazLB Thumb
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: No 2026 games have been scored yet this season.
Model margin
3.1 vs BUF
Market margin
BUF by 1.5
Edge
-4.6
Model side
HOU +1.5
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->