ARCHIVED · FINAL
CLE 0-1 ADJ #30raw #32 
TB 0-1 ADJ #20raw #25 FINAL
CLE 23
TB 19
Kickoff was Rest · CLE - · TB -
CLE +8.5 TB -8.5 O/U 41.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
| CLE | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Points per game | 10.0 | 27.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| Against the spread | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Over / under | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
CLElast 5
W1 - at JAX L 10-34 +8.5 X
TBlast 5
W1 - at CIN L 27-33 +3.5 X
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- Pass EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying passing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring through the air.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play -0.189 -0.038
Adj offense EPA -0.123 -0.002
Adj defense EPA -0.066 -0.036
Pass EPA/play -1.612 -0.247
Rush EPA/play -0.297 -0.077
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- PROE
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values indicate the offense passes more often than situation-based expectations; negative values indicate less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | PROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 38.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% | +2.2% |
| TB | 69.2% | 1.9% | 40.6% | 12.5% | 9.6% | +2.0% |
Honesty stats
- Recent form
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Recent form
CLE-
TB-
CLE n=- · TB n=-
Turnover margin / game
CLE-
TB-
Fumble recovery share
CLE-
TB-
CLE n=- · TB n=-
Red-zone TD / play
CLE-
TB-
CLE n=- · TB n=-
Drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 27.3% | 0.0% | 9.7% | - | - |
| TB | 45.2% | 3.8% | 9.3% | - | - |
Honesty detail
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Red-zone EPA / play
CLE-
TB-
CLE n=- · TB n=-
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-15T22:25 CLE0 rows
injuries data is cached through week 1; week 2 was requested.
TB0 rows
injuries data is cached through week 1; week 2 was requested.
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
-
Market margin
8.5 vs CLE
Edge
-
Model side
-
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->