ARCHIVED · FINAL
CIN 2-0 ADJ #24raw #10 
PIT 1-1 ADJ #22raw #23 FINAL
CIN 27
PIT 30
Kickoff was Rest · CIN 7d · PIT 7d Division game
CIN -3.5 PIT +3.5 O/U 42.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · CIN 23.0 · PIT 19.5
| CIN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 11.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| Against the spread | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Over / under | 1-1 | 0-2 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
CINlast 5
W2 - at HOU W 20-6 +3.0 C
W1 - vs TB W 33-27 -3.5 C
PITlast 5
W2 - at NE L 3-20 +4.5 X
W1 - vs ATL W 20-13 -6.5 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
CIN-0.125 #24/32
PIT-0.122 #22/32
Adj offense EPA
CIN-0.103 #28/32
PIT-0.119 #29/32
Adj defense EPA
CIN-0.022 #20/32
PIT-0.003 #16/32
EPA/dropback
CIN+0.043 #20/32
PIT-0.411 #31/32
EPA/dropback allowed
CIN-0.145 #4/32
PIT-0.368 #1/32
Rush EPA/play
CIN+0.067 #9/32
PIT-0.165 #27/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 39.0% #26/32 | 8.9% #13/32 | 7.3% #13/32 | +4.1% #12/32 | 24.2% #29/32 |
| PIT | 36.0% #30/32 | 4.5% #28/32 | 12.4% #31/32 | -4.9% #25/32 | 5.4% #4/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 37.6% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 4.0% | +3.5% |
| PIT | 47.7% | 8.1% | 27.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | +4.0% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
CIN+1.50 #2/32
PIT+0.50 #14/32
Fumble recovery share
CIN80.0% #1/32
PIT33.3% #25/32
CIN n=5 · PIT n=7
Red-zone TD / play
CIN16.7% #23/31
PIT12.5% #28/31
CIN n=18 · PIT n=8
Red-zone EPA / play
CIN+0.108 #13/31
PIT-0.880 #31/31
CIN n=18 · PIT n=8
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-27T08:17 CIN4 rows
Out Andrei IosivasWR Thumb
Doubtful B.J. HillDT Achilles
DNP Dexter LawrenceDT Not injury related - resting player
Full Jonathan AllenDT Not injury related - resting player, Knee
PIT8 rows
Out Gennings DunkerG Knee
Out Rico DowdleRB Toe
Questionable Jamel DeanCB Ankle
Questionable Jaylen WarrenRB Shoulder
Questionable Joey Porter Jr.CB Not injury related - other
Questionable Michael PittmanWR Foot
Full Cole HolcombLB Not injury related - personal matter
Full Jalen RamseyCB Not injury related - resting player
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
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Market margin
CIN by 3.5
Edge
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Model side
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One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->