ARCHIVED · FINAL
MIN 2-0 ADJ #7raw #13 
TB 0-2 ADJ #30raw #25 FINAL
MIN 23
TB 16
Kickoff was Rest · MIN 7d · TB 7d
MIN -1.5 TB +1.5 O/U 42.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · MIN 22.0 · TB 20.5
| MIN | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 23.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.5 | 28.0 |
| Against the spread | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Over / under | 1-1 | 2-0 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
MINlast 5
W2 - at CHI W 9-3 +4.5 C
W1 - vs GB W 39-22 -1.5 C
TBlast 5
W2 - vs CLE L 19-23 -8.5 X
W1 - at CIN L 27-33 +3.5 X
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
MIN+0.118 #7/32
TB-0.266 #30/32
Adj offense EPA
MIN-0.041 #21/32
TB-0.070 #23/32
Adj defense EPA
MIN+0.160 #2/32
TB-0.195 #31/32
EPA/dropback
MIN-0.009 #23/32
TB-0.262 #30/32
EPA/dropback allowed
MIN-0.015 #11/32
TB+0.139 #20/32
Rush EPA/play
MIN-0.081 #19/32
TB+0.066 #10/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27.8% #32/32 | 5.6% #26/32 | 11.1% #28/32 | +19.2% #5/32 | 14.8% #18/32 |
| TB | 41.4% #21/32 | 7.9% #17/32 | 6.5% #9/32 | -0.3% #19/32 | 5.3% #3/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 55.1% | 3.7% | 30.0% | 12.0% | 3.7% | -8.7% |
| TB | 71.9% | 3.5% | 30.4% | 11.6% | 9.6% | +0.2% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
MIN+1.50 #3/32
TB-2.00 #31/32
Fumble recovery share
MIN60.0% #9/32
TB20.0% #30/32
MIN n=5 · TB n=5
Red-zone TD / play
MIN26.7% #7/31
TB13.6% #26/31
MIN n=15 · TB n=22
Red-zone EPA / play
MIN+0.202 #8/31
TB-0.190 #24/31
MIN n=15 · TB n=22
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-27T08:17 MIN10 rows
Out Brett ThorsonP Hamstring
Out Nick SamacC Knee
DNP Christian DarrisawT Not injury related - resting player
Limited Harrison SmithS Not injury related - resting player
Full Aaron JonesRB Knee
Full Brian O'NeillT Knee
Full DeeJay DallasRB Toe
Full Jake GoldayLB Ankle
Full Jalen RedmondDE Elbow
Full Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE Oblique
TB7 rows
Out Rueben Bain Jr.LB Groin
Out Josiah TrotterLB Shoulder
Full A'Shawn RobinsonDE Not injury related - resting player
Full Anthony NelsonLB Shin
Full Baker MayfieldQB Illness
Full Jacob ParrishCB Back
Full Jalen McMillanWR Knee
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
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Market margin
MIN by 1.5
Edge
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Model side
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One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->