ARCHIVED · FINAL
NE 1-1 ADJ #6raw #7 
JAX 1-1 ADJ #4raw #4 FINAL
NE 6
JAX 35
Kickoff was Rest · NE 7d · JAX 7d
NE +3.0 JAX -3.0 O/U 46.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · NE 21.8 · JAX 24.8
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 15.0 | 23.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 8.0 | 15.0 |
| Against the spread | 1-0-1 | 1-1 |
| Over / under | 0-2 | 1-1 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
NElast 5
W2 - vs PIT W 20-3 -4.5 C
W1 - at SEA L 10-13 +3.0 P
JAXlast 5
W2 - at DEN L 13-20 +2.5 X
W1 - vs CLE W 34-10 -8.5 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
NE+0.120 #6/32
JAX+0.198 #4/32
Adj offense EPA
NE+0.101 #5/32
JAX+0.088 #7/32
Adj defense EPA
NE+0.020 #10/32
JAX+0.110 #4/32
EPA/dropback
NE+0.002 #22/32
JAX+0.182 #12/32
EPA/dropback allowed
NE-0.179 #3/32
JAX-0.114 #5/32
Rush EPA/play
NE+0.027 #13/32
JAX+0.032 #11/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 43.8% #12/32 | 7.5% #22/32 | 7.1% #12/32 | -1.8% #23/32 | 18.2% #24/32 |
| JAX | 47.8% #6/32 | 8.1% #15/32 | 13.0% #32/32 | +25.5% #2/32 | 4.2% #1/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 51.4% | 2.8% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 0.0% | +1.4% |
| JAX | 64.0% | 2.3% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | -3.7% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
NE-1.50 #29/32
JAX+1.00 #8/32
Fumble recovery share
NE33.3% #24/32
JAX60.0% #8/32
NE n=4 · JAX n=5
Red-zone TD / play
NE20.0% #18/31
JAX33.3% #1/31
NE n=5 · JAX n=9
Red-zone EPA / play
NE-0.776 #30/31
JAX+0.382 #5/31
NE n=5 · JAX n=9
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-27T08:17 NE10 rows
Out Dre'Mont JonesLB Shoulder
Out Quintayvious HutchinsLB Knee
Out Brenden SchoolerS Back
Questionable Eli RaridonTE Thigh
Questionable Craig WoodsonS Shoulder
Limited Morgan MosesT Foot
Limited Reggie GilliamFB Knee
Full Carlton Davis IIICB Neck
Full Dametrious CrownoverT Knee
Full DaQuan JonesDT Not injury related - personal matter
JAX8 rows
Doubtful Albert RegisDT Elbow
Limited DaVon HamiltonDT Back
Limited LeQuint Allen Jr.RB Hip
Full Branson CombsLB Not injury related - personal matter
Full Christian BraswellCB Knee
Full Cole Van LanenT Knee
Full Jakobi MeyersWR Thumb
Full Robert HainseyC Elbow, Groin
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
-
Market margin
3.0 vs NE
Edge
-
Model side
-
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->