ARCHIVED · FINAL
ATL 1-2 ADJ #30raw #18 
NO 1-2 ADJ #17raw #22 FINAL
ATL 45
NO 24
Kickoff was Rest · ATL 11d · NO 8d Division game
ATL +2.5 NO -2.5 O/U 47.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · ATL 22.5 · NO 25.0
| ATL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Points per game | 17.0 | 27.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 27.7 |
| Against the spread | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Over / under | 1-2 | 2-1 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
ATLlast 5
W3 - at GB W 35-14 +4.5 C
W2 - vs CAR L 3-34 +2.5 X
W1 - at PIT L 13-20 +6.5 X
NOlast 5
W3 - vs LV L 27-35 -3.5 X
W2 - at BAL W 24-17 +8.5 C
W1 - at DET L 30-31 +7.0 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
ATL-0.163 #30/32
NO-0.056 #17/32
Adj offense EPA
ATL-0.154 #31/32
NO-0.035 #19/32
Adj defense EPA
ATL-0.010 #14/32
NO-0.021 #16/32
EPA/dropback
ATL-0.359 #32/32
NO+0.023 #20/32
EPA/dropback allowed
ATL+0.014 #15/32
NO+0.132 #20/32
Rush EPA/play
ATL-0.006 #12/32
NO-0.008 #13/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 51.8% #3/32 | 7.1% #18/32 | 8.2% #19/32 | +7.6% #5/32 | 31.8% #30/32 |
| NO | 43.5% #16/32 | 7.2% #17/32 | 5.9% #7/32 | +5.1% #11/32 | 28.1% #27/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 70.2% | 2.8% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 3.5% | -11.8% |
| NO | 65.3% | 3.6% | 15.5% | 3.5% | 16.2% | +1.6% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
ATL-2.00 #32/32
NO-1.33 #27/32
Fumble recovery share
ATL42.9% #18/32
NO36.4% #25/32
ATL n=7 · NO n=12
Red-zone TD / play
ATL28.6% #4/32
NO25.0% #7/32
ATL n=14 · NO n=36
Red-zone EPA / play
ATL+0.593 #2/32
NO+0.217 #7/32
ATL n=14 · NO n=36
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-10-04T08:31 ATL7 rows
Questionable Divine DeabloLB Hamstring
Questionable Samson EbukamDE Hamstring
Questionable Yasir AbdullahLB Illness
DNP Jake MatthewsT Not injury related - resting player
Full Jawaan TaylorT Not injury related - resting player
Full Kendal DanielsLB Achilles
Full Za'Darius SmithDE Not injury related - resting player
NO13 rows
Out Anfernee JenningsLB Knee
Out Carl GrandersonLB Ankle
Out Kaden EllissLB Calf
Questionable Pete WernerLB Shoulder
Questionable Noah FantTE Abdomen
DNP Nathan ShepherdDT Not injury related - resting player
DNP Treyton WelchTE Not injury related - personal matter
Limited Jayden PriceCB Ankle
Full Barion BrownWR Hamstring
Full Christen MillerDT Toe
Full Davon GodchauxDT Not injury related - resting player
Full Julian BlackmonS Calf
Full Martin EmersonCB Shoulder
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
-
Market margin
2.5 vs ATL
Edge
-
Model side
-
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->