ARCHIVED · FINAL
KC 3-0 ADJ #7raw #5 
LV 3-0 ADJ #13raw #10 FINAL
KC 30
LV 27
Kickoff was Rest · KC 7d · LV 7d Division game
KC -4.5 LV +4.5 O/U 47.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · KC 26.0 · LV 21.5
| KC | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Points per game | 29.3 | 29.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7 | 18.0 |
| Against the spread | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Over / under | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
KClast 5
W3 - at MIA W 24-10 -10.0 C
W2 - vs IND W 33-30 -6.0 X
W1 - vs DEN W 31-10 -2.5 C
LVlast 5
W3 - at NO W 35-27 +3.5 C
W2 - at LAC W 26-14 +6.5 C
W1 - vs MIA W 27-13 -3.0 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
KC+0.083 #7/32
LV-0.029 #13/32
Adj offense EPA
KC+0.040 #12/32
LV-0.060 #21/32
Adj defense EPA
KC+0.042 #8/32
LV+0.031 #10/32
EPA/dropback
KC+0.235 #7/32
LV+0.246 #6/32
EPA/dropback allowed
KC-0.000 #13/32
LV-0.052 #5/32
Rush EPA/play
KC+0.149 #3/32
LV-0.099 #26/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 50.7% #5/32 | 10.5% #5/32 | 5.0% #4/32 | +2.0% #15/32 | 20.6% #19/32 |
| LV | 41.7% #20/32 | 6.1% #26/32 | 5.3% #6/32 | +20.3% #1/32 | 15.8% #11/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 59.3% | 11.0% | 40.0% | 21.1% | 0.6% | +3.9% |
| LV | 64.4% | 3.1% | 20.7% | 7.6% | 3.7% | -2.5% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
KC+1.00 #7/32
LV+1.67 #2/32
Fumble recovery share
KC80.0% #1/32
LV66.7% #5/32
KC n=6 · LV n=16
Red-zone TD / play
KC20.9% #12/32
LV20.5% #15/32
KC n=43 · LV n=39
Red-zone EPA / play
KC-0.041 #18/32
LV-0.059 #20/32
KC n=43 · LV n=39
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-10-04T08:31 KC11 rows
Out Josh SimmonsT Back
Full Ashton GillotteDE Knee
Full Chamarri ConnerS Knee
Full Chris JonesDT Calf
Full Christian Roland-WallaceCB Shoulder
Full Felix Anudike-UzomahDE Quadricep
Full Jack CochraneLB Calf
Full Jadon CanadyCB Knee
Full L'Jarius SneedCB Knee
Full Patrick MahomesQB Knee
Full Rashee RiceWR Knee
LV11 rows
Out Jackson Powers-JohnsonG Groin
Questionable Aidan O'ConnellQB Not injury related - personal matter
Limited Brock BowersTE Knee
Limited Cody WhiteWR Ankle
Full Ashton JeantyRB Ankle
Full Eric StokesCB Ankle
Full Foley FatukasiDT Shoulder
Full Isaiah Pola-MaoS Foot
Full Malik BensonWR Knee
Full Treydan StukesS Concussion
Full Tristin McCollumS Knee
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
-
Market margin
KC by 4.5
Edge
-
Model side
-
One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->