ARCHIVED · FINAL
TEN 0-3 ADJ #32raw #31 
BAL 2-1 ADJ #9raw #8 FINAL
TEN 18
BAL 24
Kickoff was Rest · TEN 7d · BAL 7d
TEN +11.5 BAL -11.5 O/U 42.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
Implied score · TEN 15.5 · BAL 27.0
| TEN | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Points per game | 12.3 | 30.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.7 | 26.0 |
| Against the spread | 1-2 | 1-1-1 |
| Over / under | 1-2 | 2-1 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Locked pre-kickoff market line, shown for historical context only -- not adjusted for the final result.
Last 5 - newest first
TENlast 5
W3 - at NYG L 7-12 +2.5 X
W2 - vs PHI L 20-24 +7.0 C
W1 - vs NYJ L 10-23 -1.5 X
BALlast 5
W3 - at DAL W 34-31 -3.0 P
W2 - vs NO L 17-24 -8.5 X
W1 - at IND W 41-23 -3.0 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- EPA/dropback
- Raw offensive expected points added per qualifying quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Higher values mean the offense creates more value each time the quarterback drops back to throw.
- EPA/dropback allowed
- Raw defensive expected points allowed per opponent quarterback dropback -- pass attempts, sacks, and scrambles.Why it matters: Lower values are better: they mean the defense concedes less value on opposing dropbacks.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play
TEN-0.263 #32/32
BAL+0.057 #9/32
Adj offense EPA
TEN-0.129 #29/32
BAL+0.049 #9/32
Adj defense EPA
TEN-0.134 #31/32
BAL+0.008 #13/32
EPA/dropback
TEN-0.150 #29/32
BAL+0.350 #2/32
EPA/dropback allowed
TEN+0.138 #22/32
BAL+0.048 #18/32
Rush EPA/play
TEN+0.059 #7/32
BAL+0.095 #4/32
Efficiency drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 38.8% #26/32 | 7.9% #16/32 | 7.3% #11/32 | -3.8% #28/32 | 16.7% #12/32 |
| BAL | 57.7% #2/32 | 12.1% #3/32 | 7.4% #12/32 | -2.5% #24/32 | 26.5% #26/32 |
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- Pass rate over expected
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values mean the offense drops back more often than expected for its situation; negative values mean it drops back less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | Pass rate over expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 50.7% | 2.1% | 26.6% | 6.3% | 10.0% | -11.7% |
| BAL | 62.4% | 6.4% | 31.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | -8.3% |
Variance & finishing
- Last-4 power change
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power. Withheld before Week 5, since the last-four window and the season-to-date window are nearly identical that early in the season.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Turnover margin / game
TEN-0.33 #23/32
BAL+0.33 #12/32
Fumble recovery share
TEN25.0% #29/32
BAL40.0% #20/32
TEN n=6 · BAL n=5
Red-zone TD / play
TEN14.8% #26/32
BAL22.2% #9/32
TEN n=27 · BAL n=36
Red-zone EPA / play
TEN-0.149 #23/32
BAL-0.013 #16/32
TEN n=27 · BAL n=36
Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-10-04T08:31 TEN4 rows
Questionable Kevin Winston Jr.S Shoulder
Questionable Tyjae SpearsRB Ankle
Full John Franklin-MyersDE Back
Full Tony PollardRB Foot
BAL12 rows
Out Ethan PocicC Knee
Out Jovaughn GwynC Ankle
Out Trey HendricksonLB Finger
Questionable Ronnie StanleyT Toe, Not injury related - resting player
Questionable Chris MooreWR Ankle
Questionable Zay FlowersWR Hamstring, Not injury related - resting player
Full Calais CampbellDT Not injury related - resting player
Full Durham SmytheTE Heel
Full John SimpsonG Groin
Full Lamar JacksonQB Back
Full Mark AndrewsTE Hand
Full Marlon HumphreyCB Hamstring
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin, edge, and side: Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Model margin
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Market margin
11.5 vs TEN
Edge
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Model side
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One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->