NE 1-1 ADJ #6raw #7 
JAX 1-1 ADJ #4raw #4 Rest · NE - · JAX -
NE +3.0 JAX -3.0 O/U 45.5
- Record
- Wins, losses, and ties through the report's data window.Why it matters: It provides familiar season context before the efficiency splits.
- Points per game
- Average points scored per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard production, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Points allowed per game
- Average opponent points allowed per game.Why it matters: It summarizes scoreboard prevention, which can differ from play-level efficiency.
- Against the spread / ATS
- Wins, losses, and pushes measured against the closing point spread.Why it matters: It tracks performance relative to market expectations rather than straight-up results.
- Over / under
- Games finishing over, under, or exactly on the closing total.Why it matters: It gives context on scoring relative to the market total.
| NE | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Points per game | 15.0 | 23.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 8.0 | 15.0 |
| Against the spread | 1-0-1 | 1-1 |
| Over / under | 0-2 | 1-1 |
Odds source: DraftKings · Updated
Last 5 - newest first
NElast 5
W2 - vs PIT W 20-3 -4.5 C
W1 - at SEA L 10-13 +3.0 P
JAXlast 5
W2 - at DEN L 13-20 +2.5 X
W1 - vs CLE W 34-10 -8.5 C
C = covered the spread. X = did not cover. Spread shown is that team's closing number.
Advanced · identity
- Adj EPA/play
- Opponent-adjusted offense plus defense EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate stronger overall play-level performance after accounting for schedule.
- Adj offense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play.Why it matters: Positive values indicate a stronger offense after accounting for schedule.
- Adj defense EPA
- Opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play allowed, flipped so positive is stronger defense.Why it matters: It puts defensive strength on the same positive-is-better scale as offense.
- Pass EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying passing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring through the air.
- Rush EPA/play
- Expected points added per qualifying rushing play.Why it matters: It isolates how efficiently the offense changes expected scoring on the ground.
Opponent-adjusted efficiency. Longer context comes from the source JSON and markdown reports.
Adj EPA/play +0.120 +0.198
Adj offense EPA +0.101 +0.088
Adj defense EPA +0.020 +0.110
Pass EPA/play -0.127 +0.182
Rush EPA/play +0.027 +0.032
Scheme fingerprint
- Motion rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN with pre-snap motion.Why it matters: It describes how often the offense changes the defensive picture before the snap.
- RPO rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as run-pass options.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense builds a post-snap run-or-pass choice into the play.
- Play-action rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as play action.Why it matters: It describes how often the passing game uses a run fake to influence defenders.
- Screen rate
- Share of neutral-script pass plays charted by FTN as screens.Why it matters: It shows how often the offense uses designed short passes behind blockers.
- No-huddle rate
- Share of neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays charted by FTN as no-huddle plays.Why it matters: It is a simple pace proxy showing how often the offense operates without huddling, not seconds per play.
- PROE
- Mean nflverse pass rate over expected on neutral-script offensive scrimmage plays, shown in percentage points.Why it matters: Positive values indicate the offense passes more often than situation-based expectations; negative values indicate less often.
Season-to-date offensive tendencies in neutral game script. FTN charting is available from 2022 onward.
| Team | Motion | RPO | Play action | Screen | No-huddle | PROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 51.4% | 2.8% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 0.0% | +1.4% |
| JAX | 64.0% | 2.3% | 22.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | -3.7% |
Honesty stats
- Recent form
- Last four weeks adjusted power minus season adjusted power.Why it matters: It shows whether recent play-level form is above or below the longer baseline.
- Turnover margin / game
- Takeaways minus giveaways per game.Why it matters: Turnovers swing outcomes but can be less stable than down-to-down efficiency.
- Fumble recovery share
- Share of fumbles in that team's games recovered by that team.Why it matters: Extreme recovery rates flag results that may contain more bounce luck than repeatable skill.
- Red-zone TD / play
- Share of red-zone offensive plays ending in a touchdown.Why it matters: It measures conversion near the goal line instead of relying only on touchdown totals.
Not covered by this weekly-rollover publication; fantasy, catch-quality, and other advanced-stat surfaces are refreshed by a separate export step.
Recent form
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Turnover margin / game
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Drivers
- Team
- The NFL team attached to the row.Why it matters: It supplies the offensive or defensive context for every measure.
- Early down
- Share of first- and second-down plays with positive EPA.Why it matters: It shows how often an offense stays ahead of schedule before obvious passing downs.
- Explosive
- Share of plays gaining 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: Explosive gains create fast scoring swings that average efficiency can hide.
- Explosive allowed
- Share of defensive plays allowing 20+ yards by pass or 12+ yards by run.Why it matters: It shows how often a defense concedes the high-impact gains that swing drives.
- Pressure diff
- Pressure generated rate minus pressure allowed rate.Why it matters: A positive gap suggests the team creates more pocket disruption than it concedes.
- Blitz faced
- Share of opponent dropbacks on which the offense faces a blitz.Why it matters: It describes the pressure style an offense has encountered, not its performance by itself.
| Team | Early down | Explosive | Explosive allowed | Pressure diff | Blitz faced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 43.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | -1.8% | 18.2% |
| JAX | 47.8% | 8.1% | 13.0% | +25.5% | 4.2% |
Honesty detail
- Red-zone EPA / play
- EPA per play on offensive snaps from the opponent's 20 or closer.Why it matters: It captures the value of all red-zone plays, including those that do not end in touchdowns.
Red-zone EPA / play
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Injury report
information only - never adjusts the stats - data through 2026-09-22T22:02 NE0 rows
injuries data is cached through week 2; week 3 was requested.
JAX0 rows
injuries data is cached through week 2; week 3 was requested.
Model corner - collapsed by default
Model margin
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Market margin
3.0 vs NE
Edge
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Model side
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One model input, not the answer. View the tracked model profile ->